New stadium: Figures show there plenty of people to go around

Looking at population alone, Oceanside's proximity to densely populated Orange and Riverside counties could give it an edge in the debate over where to build a stadium for the San Diego Chargers.

On the other hand, stadium experts say that population alone isn't the only consideration.

The National Football League team has said it wants to leave aging Qualcomm Stadium for a first-class facility, and it has identified four potential sites in Oceanside, National City and Chula Vista.

A statistical survey performed for the North County Times by San Diego demographics firm Claritas Inc. shows that there are 4.6 million more people living in a 60-mile radius of Oceanside's potential stadium site than in a similar radius of any of the three locations proposed in southern San Diego County.

Shrink the radius to 40 miles, and Oceanside still holds a statistical edge, with 800,000 more people than any of the three southern sites.

On the other hand, the more densely populated South Bay holds its own statistical advantages. Chargers' records show that most of the team's 62,000 season ticket holders live within 20 miles of Qualcomm Stadium in Mission Valley.

Each of the two sites proposed in Chula Vista, and a third in National City, has more than 1.6 million people living within a 20-mile radius, compared to 866,000 residents living within 20 miles of Oceanside's possible site ---- the Center City Golf Course just off Interstate 5 north of Oceanside Boulevard.

David Nydegger, executive director of the Oceanside Chamber of Commerce, said Friday that it was very interesting to see exactly how many people live near the Oceanside site.

"I would say that it's certainly not a detriment, and it certainly shows that there is certainly the population there," Nydegger said, adding that the business community has thus far been excited about the prospect of an Oceanside stadium.

But he added that the chamber has not taken a position on the matter.

Chargers special counsel Mark Fabiani said that it is too early to say whether it's better to have a site that contains twice as many people spread over 60 miles or fewer people packed much closer to a stadium's front gates.

"The rule of thumb is that, ideally, you want to be as close to the center of your major population center as you can possibly be," Fabiani said. "You start with, 'Where do most people live and how close can you get to the center of that major population base?' "

More considerations

David Carter, executive director of the Sports Business Institute at the University of Southern California, said Friday that an NFL team demands more than favorable demographics.

Carter, who has worked as a consultant for the cities of Anaheim, Pasadena and Los Angeles on building an NFL stadium in the Los Angeles area, said the NFL likes to see its teams in cities with more than just large stadiums. Potential South County sites are much closer to world-class amenities such as the San Diego Zoo, SeaWorld, Petco Park, the Gaslamp Quarter, Balboa Park and quality hotels.

"The closer you get to San Diego proper, the more likely that infrastructure exists," Carter said. "San Diego proper is ready to go."

While the South County sites may be positioned well near existing amenities, Fabiani said the Oceanside site's demographics present serious potential for growth, especially in terms of attracting corporations to rent the luxury boxes and to buy the high-end, club-level seats expected to be included in a new stadium.

Fabiani noted that San Diego County is home to comparatively few large corporations.

"If San Diego was a major corporate headquarters location, which it isn't, and they were all located downtown, that would certainly make a difference," Fabiani said.

He said the Chargers are reasonably certain that they will be able to fill a stadium with regular fans, regardless of location.

"Our sense is, we are going to be able to fill the stadium as long as we're in the region and we have a good team," Fabiani said.

But he said locating and attracting high-rollers and corporate sponsors is a priority.

"Where are those people?" he said. "Are they in Orange County? Are the club-seat people in Rancho Santa Fe or Carlsbad? These are questions that can be answered by looking at the data."

Since they announced last month that Oceanside was a possible site for a stadium, Chargers officials have made it clear that they hope to build a major redevelopment effort around any site to help pay for the stadium. When the plan was to rebuild Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, the idea was to construct mixed-use buildings with condominiums and retail shops.

But Fabiani said that if the Chargers choose a smaller community such as Chula Vista or Oceanside, the redevelopment effort might focus on hotels, retail and shopping. He said that because there are only 10 home games per year, fans are willing to drive farther on game days.

But he added that a team becomes marketable over a broader radius if fans can make a weekend around a home game on Sunday afternoon.

"The ability to turn it into an all-weekend destination is big," Fabiani said. "It's like Palm Springs. You don't go for the day to play a round of golf. You go for the weekend."

Carter agreed, saying that the success of the Oceanside site hinges largely on its ability to provide big-time amenities and high-class hotels that appeal to NFL fans. Oceanside has already started down that road with its beachfront Westin hotel project under development.

"It is certainly quite possible for Oceanside to become a compelling alternative," Carter said. "But the last thing you want to do, if you're Oceanside, is to go to all this trouble and then not be able to capture the customers because they are staying in other cities, because you don't have the infrastructure and amenities."

Stadium Statistics

The following charts show population and income for 20, 40 and 60 mile distances from proposed stadium sites in Oceanside, Chula Vista and National City. Qualcomm Stadium's statistics are also included for comparison purposes.